BizTimes will explore the forecasts for the year ahead in business at the 2014 Northern Trust Economic Trends Breakfast on Jan. 17.
We haven’t yet dug in to the research that will give us a glimpse of which way the winds will be blowing next year.
But what we do know is that 2013 is poised to end with a bang, not a whimper. We’re seeing all kinds of positive economic signals as we prepare for the holidays.
Milwaukee-area commercial real estate professionals are far more confident about the current state of the marketplace than they have been in previous years, according to the results of the BizTimes annual Commercial Association of Realtors Wisconsin (CARW) member survey.
When asked, “What is your impression of the current commercial real estate market?” 80 percent of CARW members said “improving.” That is a huge increase from the 2012 CARW member survey when 43 percent said the market was “improving.” In 2011, only 35 percent said the market was “improving” and in 2010 only 32 percent said it was “improving.”
Only 1.3 percent of the respondents to the new survey described the current commercial real estate market as “weak.” In 2012, 8 percent of survey respondents described the market as “weak.” In 2011, 36 percent of the survey respondents described the market as “weak.”
These folks are developers and commercial Realtors. They tend to be lagging indicators on the front end of a recession, but leading indicators on front end of a recovery. They are optimistic about more deals getting done. That bodes very well for the southeastern Wisconsin economy.
They are not alone in their optimism. The economy also is showing positive signs of recovery in the housing market, the stock market and automotive market.
Sales of homes in the four-county metropolitan Milwaukee real estate market increased 3.5 percent in October compared with the same month a year ago. In total, 1,434 homes were sold in October, up from 1,386 in October of 2012. Milwaukee County led the way with a 5.1-percent increase, followed by Waukesha at 3.0 percent.
“The 3.5-percent increase in regional sales may be a sign that the marketplace is settling into a more gradual sales pace. Rather than seeing large, double-digit increases – fueled by discounts and low prices – steady sales increases would point to a market with competitive pricing and neither buyers nor sellers dominating a transaction,” said Mike Ruzicka, president of the Greater Milwaukee Association of Realtors. “Homes placed on the market increased for the seventh month in a row in October, going up 8.6 percent – the first time the market has seen a sustained period of increased listings since before the recession.”
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 continued to expand on their record all-time highs in recent weeks, helping investors recover what they lost in the Great Recession in their individual retirement accounts, life insurance policies and annuities and 401(k) plans.
In Detroit, U.S. automakers reported gains in sales in October, hitting their second-fastest pace of the year.
A revived Chrysler Group LLC led the way with a 27-percent jump in U.S. sales in October, with its Jeep brand having its best month in five years. General Motors Co.’s October U.S. sales soared 16 percent, while Ford Motor Co. reported a 14-percent rise in sales.
That was Ford’s best October since 2004.
Bottom line, the U.S. economy grew 2.8 percent in the third quarter, a full percentage point stronger than most economists had projected, despite the government shutdown and the uncertainty caused by the glitches of the Obamacare rollout.
BizTimes columnist Christine McMahon shares my optimism about the year ahead here.
You can register to attend the Northern Trust Economic Trends Breakfast to be presented by BizTimes on Jan. 17 by visiting www.biztimes.com/trends.
Steve Jagler is executive editor of BizTimes.
