With a tight labor market and the high cost of college, prolonging, and in some cases intensifying the debate around dinner tables about the necessity of a college education, a
Wisconsin Policy Forum study released Thursday, finds that, at least when it comes to higher-paying jobs, a four-year degree will continue to pay dividends for many young Wisconsinites.
In a study of long-term occupational employment projections for 2020 to 2030 from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, and a review the educational requirements of higher-paying jobs expected to be available here in the coming years, the public policy institute found that although 74% of the 357,000 new jobs created – either through attrition or economic development – would not require any post-high school education, at least 63% of jobs paying a median wage of $50,000 or more, would indeed require some form of postsecondary education. More than half of those jobs paying a median income of $50,000 typically require a four-year degree.
For young people looking to fill one of the 25,000, or 7%, of new jobs expected to be created this decade that pay $75,000 or more, a four-year degree will be even more necessary, as the study revealed that 91% of those higher paying positions will require a bachelor's or advance degree of some kind.
The results could be a valuable good selling point for colleges and universities in the state that are looking to maintain enrollments amidst a
shrinking pool of traditional students. Especially, as those students – and their parents – are facing some of the highest tuition rates in decades, especially at what were once considered affordable public universities.
The average cost of in-state annual tuition at a four-year public university has increased by 179% in the past 20 years in the U.S., according to the Education Data Initiative. In its report, the WPF sites an analysis by the national nonprofit College Board, showing the average net tuition and fees paid by full-time students at Wisconsin’s public four-year institutions “was roughly 12% lower in 2023 than in 2018, when adjusted for inflation.” In plain dollars, however, tuition has increased sharply in the last 20 years in Wisconsin.
Annual in-state tuition at a University of Wisconsin System school was $3,791 in 2000. Under the 4.1% tuition increase approved by the UW Board of Regents for the 2023-‘24 academic year – an increase that followed a 10-year, system-wide tuition freeze – annual, in-state tuition and fees at UW-Milwaukee is $10,020. UW-Madison’s is slightly higher at $11,215. In 2017, the cost to attend UW-Madison was $10,533, at UW-Milwaukee it was $9,565.
Jobs and earnings
Of the 10 jobs expected to have median salaries of $50,000 or more this decade, those with the most openings will include: sales representatives, agricultural managers, carpenters, production, operations and office supervisors, and administrative support positions.
Other higher paying jobs include registered nurses, accountants, and elementary school teachers.
The report also points out that, “as a panel of national experts at a recent Brookings Institution event articulated, median annual wages rarely equate to entry-level wages, meaning that it may take years for a college graduate to see their earnings outpace those in another field.”
Although projections can only tell analysts “what appears most likely to occur,” and upsets from “technological advancements, such as the rise of artificial intelligence, also could impact the state’s job market in ways that are difficult to forecast,” the report closes by stating that despite such uncertainties, “the actual changes in Wisconsin’s job market over the last 10 years and the projected changes through 2030 show a college degree will be an imperative for those seeking to fill many of the state’s higher-paying job openings.”
“Consequently, while the cost-benefit calculus for each potential job seeker will differ, it does appear that higher education will hold value for many young Wisconsinites in the years to come,” it states.
