Bull Market

The Insurance Information Institute recently compiled a series of economic projections for the remainder of 2012 for companies in the insurance industry. The following are some of their key prognostications.

  • Economic growth will accelerate modestly in 2012/2013, beating expectations. There will be no double-dip recession. “Economy remains more resilient than most pundits presume.”
  • Consumer confidence will continue to improve.
  • Consumer spending/investment will continue to expand.
  • Housing market remains weak, but some improvement is expected.
  • Inflation remains tame. “Runaway inflation highly unlikely but energy spike possible; Fed has things under control.”
  • Private sector hiring remains consistently positive and exceeds expectations. “Unemployment dips below 8 percent by year’s end.”
  • Sovereign debt, Euro currency/economy, muni bond “crises” are “overblown.”
  • European recession is milder than commonly presumed.
  • China will have a soft landing.
  • Higher oil prices and current Middle East turmoil pose a greater risk to the U.S. economy in 2012 than in 2011.
  • Interest rates remain low by historical standards, but could edge up by year’s end.
  • Stock and bond markets are more stable, less volatile.
  • The political environment is more hospitable to business interests.
  • “Obama wins re-election based on improving economy.”

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